Tina Bertsch's Facebook post shows what a 9.9% tax would take from people earning $100k to $250k. She also warns that Washington will lower the threshold within two years.
The rate is real. Those are not the tax bills under the law as written. Her calculations leave out the $1 million deduction.
Checked November 6, 2026.
Who actually pays?
Starting in 2028, the tax is 9.9%, with a $1 million standard deduction. It doesn't apply to every dollar you earn.
If $100k is your only income and you're a single, full-year Washington resident, this tax is $0. The same goes for the other incomes in her post.
A couple shares the $1 million deduction. Other income can count too, so your salary alone doesn't settle it. Owning a $1 million home doesn't trigger this tax by itself.
The table assumes one full-year Washington resident with no spouse, other income, extra deductions or credits. Income is Washington base income before the $1 million deduction.
| Annual incomeBefore the deduction | Bertsch's figureIn the Facebook post | Under the lawThis tax only |
|---|---|---|
| $100,000 | $9,900 | $0 |
| $150,000 | $14,850 | $0 |
| $200,000 | $19,800 | $0 |
| $250,000 | $24,750 | $0 |
| $1,000,000Deduction limit | Not shown | $0 |
| $1,100,000 | Not shown | $9,900 |
| $1,250,000 | Not shown | $24,750 |
When does it start?
The Department of Revenue says January 1, 2028. The first returns are due in April 2029.
This isn't a new 9.9% deduction from everyone's paycheck in 2026. Collection details are still being worked out. The law covers estimated payments and says they aren't required before July 1, 2029. Federal taxes and existing state payroll premiums are separate.
Could they lower the threshold?
Yes, by changing the law. The current $1 million limit isn't permanent protection. The inflation rule prevents a downward inflation adjustment. It doesn't stop lawmakers from rewriting the limit.
Washington has already changed another tax. For 2025, it added 2.9% on taxable Washington capital gains above $1 million, taking the rate on that portion to 9.9%.
That's a different tax and a rate increase. It shows why promises about tax limits deserve skepticism. It doesn't prove Bertsch's prediction that this threshold will drop within two years.
What about the budget?
The state's own September 2026 forecast update flags an expected deficit in 2028. Washington also has a four-year balanced-budget requirement.
Meeting that requirement doesn't prove spending is under control. Forecasts can change, and another tax doesn't explain why the funding gap exists or show that programs deliver enough for their cost. The state still has to justify its spending.
What did people vote on?
Lawmakers passed the tax in March 2026. November's I-645 sought to repeal it.
As of November 6, Axios reports that voters rejected repeal; a court challenge remains. The Secretary of State says results are unofficial until December 3. The image doesn't show the post's original date, so I can't tell which vote Bertsch meant.
The debate on TVW
This October 14 episode features repeal supporter Jaime Herrera Beutler and opponent April Sims. It was recorded before the election.
Watch on TVW if the player doesn't load.
My take
I'm not giving the state a pass because it says the tax is only for millionaires. That limit can change. More revenue isn't proof of better management.
But the numbers still have to describe the law we're dealing with. Bertsch's concern about expansion is worth taking seriously. Her two-year prediction isn't established, and her figures aren't the current tax bills for those incomes.
