Hi everyone! My name is Pasha. I won the Diversity Visa Lottery in 2022 and moved to the U.S. in 2023. Based on my experience navigating the process, I share insights to help others understand the DV Lottery system and improve their chances of success.

Key Takeaways

  • Chances vary by region: Global odds range between 1-2%, but some regions or countries have slightly better chances.
  • Regions matter: Visas are allocated across six regions, with each receiving a set share of the 55,000 available visas. High-application countries have lower individual odds due to competition.
  • Eligibility is key: Only people from underrepresented countries are eligible to apply.

Understanding the Diversity Visa Lottery

The Diversity Visa (DV) Lottery is a program managed by the U.S. government to issue 55,000 green cards annually. It’s designed to increase diversity among immigrants by offering visas to individuals from underrepresented countries. To qualify, applicants must meet basic education or work experience requirements and be citizens of eligible countries.

What Are Your Chances?

The odds of being selected in the DV Lottery depend on several factors:

1. Regional Allocation

Visas are distributed among six global regions: Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, and South America (including the Caribbean). Regions with historically low immigration to the U.S. receive more visas. For example, Africa usually gets the largest share of visas, while North America’s allocation is minimal since only a few eligible countries apply.

2. Number of Applications

Countries with fewer applicants have higher chances. For example, Oceania consistently has better odds (3-5%) because of its small applicant pool. On the other hand, Africa and Asia, which see millions of applications annually, have lower individual odds (about 1-2%).

3. Per-Country Limits

No single country can receive more than 7% of the total 55,000 visas, or approximately 3,850 visas. This limit ensures a fairer distribution but means applicants from high-application countries like Egypt, Nepal, and Iran face tougher odds.

Approximate Odds Per Region

Africa

Africa typically receives the largest share of visas due to its high applicant volume. However, the individual odds hover around 1-2% because millions of people apply.

Asia

Asian countries like Nepal and Iran frequently see many selectees. However, competition is stiff due to the high volume of applications. Individual odds are similar to Africa at 1-2%.

Europe

In Europe, countries like Russia, Ukraine, and Albania consistently produce a high number of selectees, typically ranging from 2,000 to 6,000 annually. However, due to the large applicant pool, individual odds average around 0.5%-1% for most European countries. Smaller countries with fewer applicants, such as Moldova and Poland, may see slightly better odds, closer to 1%-1.5%.

Oceania

With fewer applicants, countries like Australia and Fiji have significantly higher odds, sometimes exceeding 5%.

South America and the Caribbean

This region generally sees moderate application numbers. Countries like Venezuela and Cuba often have better chances (2-3%) due to lower competition.

Odds Per Country

  • Albania: ~0.5% chance; consistently high number of applicants with stable selection odds.
  • Russia: ~0.5%-1% chance; steady applicant volume, consistent number of selectees (~5,000 annually).
  • Ukraine: ~0.5%-1% chance; consistently large applicant pool, selection rates relatively stable.
  • Turkey: ~0.5%-1%, similar to other high-application countries. Consistently sees ~2,000-3,000 selectees.
  • Poland: ~1%-1.5% due to fewer applicants compared to larger European nations. Around 500-1,000 selectees annually.
  • Moldova: ~1%. Consistently ~1,000-1,500 selectees annually.
  • Romania: ~0.5%-1%. ~1,500-2,000 selectees annually.
  • Uzbekistan: ~1%-2% chance; one of the top countries for selectees annually (~5,500 selectees in 2025).
  • Iran: ~0.5%-1% chance; consistently high number of applicants, selection odds slightly lower due to competition.
  • Nepal: ~0.5%-1% chance; consistently significant applicant volume with steady selection rates.
  • Algeria: ~0.5%-1% chance; large applicant base with high selectee numbers (~5,500 annually).
  • Egypt: ~0.5%-1% chance; one of the top African countries for selectees but heavily competitive.
  • Ethiopia: ~0.5%-1% chance; consistent applicant numbers with stable selection odds.
  • Nigeria: Ineligible in recent years due to exceeding U.S. immigration thresholds.
  • Bangladesh: Ineligible due to high immigration rates to the U.S. over the past two decades.
  • Fiji: ~3%-5% chance; low applicant numbers result in higher selection odds.
  • Australia: ~3%-5% chance; small applicant pool with stable selection trends.
  • Venezuela: ~2%-3% chance; moderate applicant numbers with consistent selectee rates.
  • Cuba: ~2%-3% chance; stable number of applicants and consistent selection trends.

Trends in Recent Years

In recent years, the number of applicants has grown significantly, especially from regions like Africa and Asia. This increase has slightly reduced individual odds in these regions. Meanwhile, regions with fewer applicants, such as Oceania, have maintained higher selection rates.

How to Improve Your Chances

While the lottery is random, you can’t really improve your chances to be selected. But ensuring eligibility and accuracy during the application process can make a difference:

  • Double-check your application for errors before submitting.
  • Apply early to avoid last-minute system delays.
  • Keep your confirmation number safe – it’s the only way to check your status.
  • Only apply through the official DV Lottery website.