During his first term, President Donald Trump made several public statements advocating for the termination of the Diversity Visa (DV) Lottery program. Now as he is elected again, he may attempt to cancel the lottery again. Should we be afraid of that? Is the lottery at risk?

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Signals Supporting Possible Cancellation of the DV Lottery

  • Historical Opposition by Trump: During his previous term, Trump strongly opposed the DV Lottery, calling it a “lottery of terror” and linking it to security risks.
  • Republican-Controlled Congress: With the GOP controlling both chambers of Congress, Trump has greater legislative support to push his immigration agenda, including possible reforms or elimination of the DV Lottery. The Verge
  • Focus on Merit-Based Immigration: Trump and his allies have consistently advocated for a merit-based immigration system, which contrasts with the DV Lottery’s randomized selection process.
  • General Push for Strict Immigration Policies: His 2024 campaign prioritizes aggressive immigration policies, such as mass deportations and increased border security, signaling potential collateral changes to other immigration programs.
  • Previous Attempts at Reform: The RAISE Act, introduced in 2017 with Trump’s support, proposed eliminating the DV Lottery as part of broader immigration changes. While it failed, it demonstrates precedent for targeting the program.

Signals Against Possible Cancellation of the DV Lottery

  • Absence from the Election’s Campaign Rhetoric: Unlike in his first term, Trump has not explicitly mentioned plans to eliminate the DV Lottery in his current campaign or policy outlines.
  • Need for Legislative Action: Cancelling the DV Lottery requires an act of Congress. While Republicans control the legislature, bipartisan support may be needed for such a reform, making it more complex to implement.
  • Focus on Broader Immigration Issues: The administration’s focus appears to be on headline issues like border security, deportations, and asylum restrictions rather than niche programs like the DV Lottery.
  • Public and Legal Pushback: The DV Lottery is popular among immigrant communities, and its cancellation could face significant public and legal opposition, potentially slowing or deterring efforts.
  • Economic Implications: The DV Lottery brings immigrants from diverse backgrounds who contribute economically and culturally. Eliminating it could face resistance from stakeholders who benefit from a diversified workforce.

My Opinion

There are bigger fish to fry for Trump’s administration. No cancellation is coming our way in the foreseeable future. The DV Lottery issues 55000 visas annually, concentrated in a single period, while illegal immigration encounters consistently exceed 175000 people per month, totaling over 2 million annually. Why cancel the lottery when it represents a fraction of the overall immigration numbers?

Here is a month-by-month visualization comparing illegal immigration encounters and Diversity Visa Lottery immigration for 2023. Based on U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.

What do you think, will Trump cancel the lottery to establish another immigration program? Welcome to the comments section!